It was 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as Unai Emery scolded him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, with the team endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a sign or the reason of Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be far more favourable. As the in-form star swept in his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?
It remains a particularly tough question to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, even as the wins have piled up.
According to the data, on just two occasions has the side registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club which has strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear strangely fragile – however at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with rivals before hoping Rogers to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed more shots and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
